Statement of Reasons—Expiry review determination: Whole potatoes (POT 2026 ER)

Summary

[1] On April 1, 2026, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT), pursuant to subsection 76.03(1) of the Special Import Measures Act (SIMA), initiated an expiry review of its order made on June 2, 2021, Inquiry No. RR-2020-002, concerning the dumping of certain whole potatoes imported from the United States of America (US), for use or consumption in the province of British Columbia (BC) (subject goods).

[2] As a result of the CITT’s expiry review, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), initiated an expiry review investigation to determine, pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA, whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the subject goods.

[3] The CBSA received a response to its Canadian Association Expiry Review Questionnaire from the British Columbia Vegetable Marketing Commission (BCVMC),^{Footnote 1} a regulatory agency of the Government of British Columbia responsible for administering and overseeing the province’s regulated vegetable industry. Prior to the close of the record, BCVMC^{Footnote 2} also submitted supplementary information in support of its position that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods.

[4] The CBSA also received response from four potato producer agencies operating under the BCVMC.^{Footnote 3} None of these parties provided information supporting the position that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods.

[5] The CBSA received four response to its Importer ERQ from Naturally Home Grown Foods LTD.,^{Footnote 4} BC Fresh Vegetables Inc.,^{Footnote 5} Thomas Fresh Inc.^{Footnote 6} and The Produce Terminal.^{Footnote 7} No importer filed a case brief or a reply submission.

[6] The CBSA received a responses to its Exporter/Foreign Producer questionnaire from Allied Potato Northwest Inc (APN). The exporter filed a case brief and a reply submission. APN argued that the expiry of the order would not likely result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of processing potatoes for processing into British Columbia.

[7] Analysis of information on the administrative record indicates a likelihood of continued or resumed dumping into Canada of certain whole potatoes imported from the US, for use or consumption in the province of BC should the CITT’s order expire. This analysis relied upon the following factors:

• overall demand for potatoes is decreasing
• persistent oversupply of potatoes in the US market
• a strong inverse relationship between the supply of potatoes and the selling prices of the goods
• major US producers are located within close proximity to the BC market and US exporters have well established channels of distribution in BC
• no other trade measures were in effect during the period of review (POR) and
• Continued interest in and dumping into the Canadian market over the period of review

[8] On the basis of the above, the CBSA is of the opinion that there is a likelihood of continued or resumed dumping into Canada of certain whole potatoes originating in or exported from the US, should the CITT’s order be rescinded.

[9] For the foregoing reasons, the CBSA, having considered the relevant information on the record, determined on August 28, 2026, pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA, that the expiry of the order in respect of certain whole potatoes originating in or exported from the US, for use or consumption in BC, is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods into Canada.

Background

[10] This case was originally two separate dumping investigations concerning whole potatoes.

[11] The first case was initiated on September 30, 1983, following a complaint filed by the BCVMC. A preliminary determination of dumping was made on March 5, 1984. On June 4, 1984, the Anti-dumping Tribunal (subsequently known as the Canadian International Trade Tribunal) issued an injury finding with respect to whole potatoes with netted or russeted skin, excluding seed potatoes, in non-size A, from the state of Washington (Washington), for use or consumption in BC. A final determination of dumping was made by the Deputy Minister of National Revenue for Customs and Excise on October 12, 1984 (at that time, the legislation required the Anti-dumping Tribunal to render its final decision regarding injury prior to the final determination of dumping).

[12] A second investigation was initiated on October 18, 1985, with regard to whole potatoes from the US for use or consumption in BC, excluding seed potatoes and excluding those potatoes covered by the previous finding. A preliminary determination of dumping was made on December 20, 1985, and a final determination of dumping was made on March 20, 1986. The CITT issued an injury finding on April 18, 1986.

[13] Since the original investigations, there have been seven expiry reviews that have resulted in the case being continued with or without amendments. The CBSA has also conducted several re-investigations to update the normal values and export prices for enforcement purposes. Anti-dumping duties have been assessed throughout this period when necessary.

[14] Since the original investigations, there have been seven expiry reviews that have resulted in the case being continued with or without amendments. The CBSA has also conducted several re-investigations to update the normal values and export prices for enforcement purposes. Anti-dumping duties have been assessed throughout this period when necessary. The CBSA’s most recent administrative review, which updated the normal values and export prices, concluded on January 23, 2026.

Product definition

[15] The goods subject to this expiry review investigation are defined as:

Inclusions, exclusions and additional information

[16] For a full list of inclusions, exclusions and for additional product information please see the relevant sections on the Measures in Force.

[17] Hereafter, the subject and the like goods will be referred to as “potatoes”.

Period of review

[18] The period of review (POR) for the CBSA’s expiry review investigation is from August 1, 2022 to December 31, 2025.

Regional market

[19] The CITT order relates to potatoes imported into a regional market, namely, BC.

[20] In accordance with SIMA, two conditions must be met for the existence of a regional market. As per subsection 2(1.1) of SIMA, they are that:

• the producers in that market sell all or almost all of their production of like goods in the market and
• the demand in that market is not to any substantial degree supplied by producers of like goods located elsewhere in Canada

[21] Further, where subsection 2(1.1) of SIMA applies, subsection 42(5) of SIMA provides that the CITT shall not find that the dumping of the goods has caused injury or is threatening to cause injury unless:

• there is a concentration of those goods into the regional market and
• the dumping of those goods has caused injury or is threatening to cause injury to the producers of all or almost all of the production of like goods in the regional market

[22] The BCVMC submits that BC continues to be a regional market, in that BC potato growers market all or almost all of their production of like goods within BC, and the demands for potatoes in BC are not to any substantial degree supplied by producers of like goods from elsewhere in Canada.^{Footnote 8}

[23] Further, at the last expiry review, the CITT concluded that, based on the data collected from its questionnaires and Statistics Canada, total shipments of potatoes from other provinces in Canada did not, to any substantial degree, supply the demand for potatoes in the BC market.^{Footnote 9}

[24] The CITT will again give consideration to the issue of regional market as part of its expiry review to determine whether the continued or resumed dumping is likely to result in injury.

British Columbia industry

[25] The BCVMC is a commission established by legislation under the Natural Products Marketing (BC) Act empowered to regulate the production and marketing of certain vegetables grown in BC, including potatoes. It administers this legislative scheme by way of a sub-delegation of powers to various sales agencies in the province, of which the producers are members. These agencies (namely, the BC Fresh Vegetables Inc., Okanagan Grown Produce Ltd., Island Vegetable Co-operative Association, Vancouver Island Produce Ltd. and Fraserland Organics Inc.) provide producers with a provincial sales outlet for their products.

[26] Unlike other potato producing regions in North America, BC’s potato sector is almost entirely focused on the production of fresh potatoes for the table stock market. As a result, potato producers rely solely on fair market access to the fresh potato market, i.e., the table potato and food service markets, within BC to survive.

[27] In contrast, 75% of the potatoes produced in Oregon, Washington State and Idaho during the POR were sold to the potato processing industry, with the remaining portion sold to the fresh potato market.^{Footnote 10}

[28] Potatoes destined for the processing industry can be sold in the fresh potato market; however, many varieties grown for the fresh market can only be sold in the fresh market as they are unsuitable for processing. Accordingly, fresh and processed potatoes produced in the US compete directly with fresh potatoes produced in BC.

[29] In both Canada and the US, the bulk of the potato harvest occurs from August to October, with potatoes that are not sold immediately being stored in storage sheds, where some varieties can be kept until the beginning of the following summer.

British Columbia market

[30] The B.C. potato market during the POR is estimated as follows by value (Table 1)

[31] Market statistics used to demonstrate the estimated BC market are expressed by value only, and do not include volume. The reason for this is that the volume data obtained from the CBSA database is not expressed in a consistent unit of measurement. Their quantities are often expressed in different units of measure, such as metric tons, hundredweight (cwt), number of packages, etc. Accordingly, the CBSA data could not be used to calculate total volume or perform any meaningful calculations of unit value.

[32] Throughout the period of review, the British Columbia producers maintained the majority share of the apparent British Columbia market. Although their share of the market fluctuated over the period, it remained the predominant source of supply. Imports of the subject goods from the United States accounted for the remaining share of the apparent market and also fluctuated over the period. There were no imports of the subject goods from any other countries during the period of review.

Enforcement data

[33] As detailed in Table 2 below, the enforcement of the CITT’s finding by the CBSA during the POR has resulted in the assessment of anti-dumping duties on imports of subject goods from the subject country in the amount of $752,114.

Parties to the proceeding

[34] On April 2, 2026, a notice concerning the CBSA’s initiation of the expiry review investigation was sent to all known Canadian producers, importers and US associations representing the producers of potatoes.

[35] The ERQs requested information relevant to the consideration of the expiry review factors found under subsection 37.2(1) of the Special Import Measures Regulations (SIMR).

[36] The BCVMC and four of its marketing agencies provided responses to the Canadian Association ERQ. Three importers provided a responses to the Importer ERQ. BC Fresh responded to both the Canadian Association ERQ and Importer ERQ. One exporter provided a response to the Exporter/Foreign Producer ERQ.

[37] Counsel for the BCVMC submitted a case brief and a reply brief in support of its position that the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the subject goods. Counsel for the exporter submitted a case brief and a reply brief, arguing that the expiry of the order would not likely result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of processing potatoes for chipping into British Columbia.

Information considered by the CBSA

Administrative record

[38] The information considered by the CBSA for purposes of this expiry review investigation is contained on the administrative record. The administrative record includes the information on the CBSA’s Exhibit Listing, which is comprised of CBSA exhibits and information submitted by interested persons, including information which parties feel is relevant to the decision as to whether dumping is likely to continue or resume if the finding is rescinded. This information may consist of expert analyst reports, excerpts from trade magazines and newspapers, orders and findings issued by authorities of Canada or of a country other than Canada, documents from international trade organizations and responses to the ERQs, if any, submitted by domestic producers, importers, as well as exporters and foreign producers.

[39] For purposes of an expiry review investigation, the CBSA sets a date after which no new information submitted by interested parties will be placed on the administrative record or considered as part of the CBSA’s expiry review investigation. This is referred to as the “closing of the record date.” For this expiry review investigation, the closing of the record date was May 25, 2026. This deadline allows parties time to prepare their case briefs and reply submissions based on the information that is on the administrative record. Appendix C contains the list of exhibits and information on the administrative record.

Position of the parties: Dumping

Consideration and analysis: Dumping

[45] In making a determination under paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods, the CBSA may consider the factors identified in subsection 37.2(1) of the SIMR, as well as any other factors relevant under the circumstances.

[46] Guided by the aforementioned factors and having considered the information on the administrative record, the following list represents a summary of the CBSA’s analysis conducted in this expiry review investigation with respect to dumping:

• whether the subject goods were dumped while the order was in effect
• overall demand for the goods
• performance of the exporters in respect of production, supply and selling prices and
• proximity of the US industry to the BC market and existing channels of distribution

[47] A discussion of these factors is presented below. The subject goods will be considered as a whole, regardless of whether they are produced for the fresh or processing market, since processed potatoes can be sold into the fresh market.

Dumping of the subject goods while the order was in effect

[48] The anti-dumping duties collected throughout the POR are presented in the “Enforcement Data” section of this report. The information discloses that during the POR, there was dumping of the subject goods into the BC market. As stated previously, margins of dumping result when export prices are less than the normal values of the goods.

[49] During the POR, the CBSA determined the export price of the subject goods based on the declared selling price to Canadian importers as reflected on the customs documentation, adjusted by deducting from the selling price all costs, charges, expenses, duties and taxes described in subparagraphs 24(a)(i) to (iii) of SIMA. This allowed for the possibility of exporters to increase the selling price of the subject goods to above normal value. The reduction in SIMA duties assessed during the course of the POR indicate that exporters have generally been increasing selling prices to avoid the imposition of SIMA duties.

[50] The BCVMC has provided its own analysis of the margins of dumping throughout the POR for the two most common selling packages, the 5 x 10 lb and 10 x 5 lb poly bags of russet potatoes. While the analysis does not reflect the extent of the dumping for the subject goods, it does indicate that in the absence of the CITT’s 2021 order, there would have been a high likelihood that dumping would have occurred.

[51] On July 31, 2025, following the conclusion of the 2025 administrative review (POT 2025 UP1), the CBSA updated the normal values determined under ministerial specification. These updated normal values applied to subject goods imported between August 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025. During this period, the CBSA observed a significant increase in the amount of SIMA duties assessed and collected. This increase suggests that the previous normal values established in 2015 under ministerial specification may not have reflected prevailing market conditions and that, prior to the update, subject goods may have continued to enter Canada at prices that may have been dumped.

[52] In accordance with the information on record and the anti-dumping duties collected during the POR, the CBSA is of the opinion that US producers were able to sell subject goods into BC at non-dumped prices during the POR. This does not demonstrate an absence of a propensity to dump, but rather indicates that exporters generally increased selling prices during the POR to avoid the assessment of anti-dumping duties. While the significant increase in SIMA duties following the July 2025 update to normal values may be partly attributable to the revised normal values established under ministerial specification, the continued assessment of anti-dumping duties demonstrates that dumping persisted while the order was in effect.

Performance of exporters

Surplus production

[53] The US has a significantly larger potato industry than British Columbia. In this regard, the US fall crop is of particular importance, as it is the crop with which the BC industry primarily competes. Fall potatoes are planted in the spring and typically harvested in the July through October. Production in excess of immediate market requirements is placed into storage and marketed throughout the year until the subsequent harvest.

[54] USDA data for US fall potato acreage and production indicate that planted acreage declined modestly between 2016 and 2025, from approximately one million acres to approximately 900,000 acres. Despite this decline, annual production averaged approximately 417 million hundredweight over the period. Washington, Idaho and Oregon accounted for more than half of total U.S. fall potato production, with Idaho representing the largest producing state and Washington the second largest. Throughout the POR, planted acreage remained at high levels while yields continued to increase despite evidence of weakening demand.^{Footnote 17}

[55] In general terms, potato production in Washington, Idaho and Oregon is many times greater than production in BC, demonstrating the substantially larger production capacity of the US industry. As such, the US potato industry has the capacity to supply the entire BC market many times over.^{Footnote 18}

[56] Information on the record indicates that US potato production has consistently exceeded domestic demand, resulting in surplus production available for export markets. During the POR, this imbalance was further exacerbated by consistently high yields in the western producing states. As production remained relatively stable while demand weakened, the gap between supply and demand widened.

[57] The record indicates that planted acreage has remained consistently high despite weakening demand, while production has continued to benefit from increasing yields. These conditions suggest that surplus production is likely to continue.

[58] Faced with surplus production and weakening demand, US producers and exporters are increasingly reliant on export markets to absorb excess production. These market conditions may increase the incentive for US exporters to compete more aggressively in foreign markets, including BC, thereby increasing the likelihood of goods being offered at dumped prices.

Selling prices

[59] Information on the administrative record demonstrates that potato selling prices are primarily driven by prevailing supply and demand conditions. An increase in supply, absent a corresponding increase in demand, results in downward pressure on prices, while stronger demand relative to available supply supports higher price levels.

[60] US production remained high relative to demand during the POR, resulting in surplus supply conditions that placed downward pressure on selling prices in the US. The administrative record indicates that, under these conditions, selling prices for potatoes declined to levels below break-even for most US growers during certain periods of the POR.^{Footnote 19}

[61] These conditions are reflected in export pricing, as US exporters adjust selling prices downward to remain competitive and facilitate the movement of surplus volumes. Given the relatively small size of the BC market relative to the US market, prices in BC are highly responsive to prevailing US market conditions.

Overall demand

[62] Information on the record indicates a long-term decline in fresh potato consumption in both the United States and Canada. The record indicates that this trend reflects broader changes in consumer preferences and food consumption patterns that have affected demand across the potato sector.^{Footnote 20Footnote 21}

[63] Contributing factors include a shift away from traditional home-prepared meals toward more convenience-oriented food options, such as fast food, as well as evolving dietary preferences that have reduced consumption of carbohydrate-rich foods. In addition, the increasing use of semaglutide medications has been identified as a factor reducing overall food consumption, with corresponding effects on demand across the potato sector. Collectively, these factors may have contributed to weaker demand conditions within the potato sector during the period of review (POR).

[64] Faced with declining demand, U.S. exporters rely on export markets to absorb excess production. Combined with surplus production in the United States, these conditions may increase the incentive for U.S. exporters to compete more aggressively in foreign markets, including Canada, thereby increasing the likelihood of dumping.

Proximity to BC market and existing channels of distribution

[65] The Canadian and US agricultural markets are highly integrated, supported by long-standing and well-established distribution networks between US suppliers and Canadian importers. The majority of US potatoes are produced in western states, including Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, which are located immediately south of the BC border.

[66] These established distribution channels support the regular movement of US potatoes into BC and allow exporters to readily adjust shipment volumes in response to market conditions. As a result, BC remains a natural and accessible export destination for US potatoes, particularly during periods of excess supply in the US market.

[67] The proximity of major US producing regions to BC, together with existing and well-established distribution channels, supports the likelihood that shipments could be readily redirected into the BC market in response to market conditions in the United States, should the order be rescinded.

Conclusion

[68] For the purpose of making a determination in this expiry review investigation, the CBSA conducted its analysis within the scope of the factors found under subsection 37.2(1) of the SIMR and considering any other factors relevant in the circumstances.

[69] Based on the foregoing consideration of pertinent factors and analysis of information on the record, on August 28, 2026, the CBSA made a determination pursuant to paragraph 76.03(7)(a) of SIMA that the expiry of the finding made by the CITT on June 2, 2021, Inquiry No. RR-2020-002, concerning the dumping of certain whole potatoes imported from the United States of America, for use or consumption in the province of British Columbia is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping of the goods.

Future action

[70] The CITT has now initiated its expiry review to determine whether the continued or resumed dumping is likely to result in injury. The CITT’s expiry review schedule indicates that it will make its decision by February 4, 2027.

[71] If the CITT determines that the expiry of the order with respect to the goods is likely to result in injury, the order will be continued in respect of those goods, with or without amendment. If this is the case, the CBSA will continue to levy anti-dumping duties on dumped importations of the subject goods.

[72] If the CITT determines that the expiry of the order with respect to the goods is not likely to result in injury, the order will expire in respect of those goods. Anti-dumping duties would then no longer be levied on importations of the subject goods, and any anti-dumping duties paid in respect of goods that were released after the date that the order was scheduled to expire will be returned to the importer.

Contact us

[73] For further information, please contact the CBSA at:

Email: trade_remedies_registry-registre_recours_commerciaux@cbsa-asfc.gc.ca